"What was your prediction last year?"

________

I don't recall making a prediction last year or ever before.

I base my current prediction on the admissions of Tribe.net that the ad revenue is not even covering the bills. I base it on the desperate and embarassing ploy for premium subscriptions that is not really warranted by what is offered in return. I mean, not having to view ads is nice, but few websites have been able to entice people to pay for otherwise free services just in exchange for being free of ads. It was a last ditch desperate ploy and I think most people recognize that now.

Most of the comments I have read from premium members state that the members view the premium subscription more or less as a donation to keep the company from going out of business, which they don't want to see happen because they would lose the networks they have built up.

I would assume that most people who are so motiviated to subscribe for those reasons already have. And I would bet that the numbers who did are not really enough to sustain, much less grow the business. And I would bet that the services offered in exchange for premium service are not going to be enough to attract additional subscribes. And therefore, it will die unless the owners keep infusing their own money.

How long will they do that? I give it six months, but I admit that is just a guess.